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Just Off-Camera

"They respect you if you write. The dumber the world gets, the more the words matter." -Dan Jenkins


Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Now Serving #715

I just wanted to throw this prediction out there, since I made it on April 27 and there's a chance it could come true. I wouldn't want to miss out on the credit in case I get it right.

I entered deadspin.com's contest to pick the pitcher who will join Al Downing in the "I gave up someone's 715th career home run" club (the contest is now closed).

My pick: "Bonds will hit #715 off of Jae Seo, continuing the odd trend of Korean pitchers giving up landmark home runs (Chan Ho Park - Bonds's 71st & 72nd, Cal Ripken Jr.'s final all-star HR; BK Kim - 2001 world series)." (By the way, why is Byung-Hyun Kim's nickname "B.K.?" Shouldn't it be B.H.?)

When I made that pick, Barry was sitting on 711, having gone yard three times in his last five games. I did a little projecting, made some random assumptions, and guessed that Bonds would reach 715 right around when he faced the Dodgers at home on May 12-14. Jae Seo, as I guessed a couple weeks ago, is still scheduled to start on May 14, which makes my pick a likely possibility. The Giants have five games between now and Sunday, but two are the classic day-game-after-a-night-game that Bonds frequently sits out, so I'm thinking Bonds will only play four of those games. If he homers in one of them, then Seo will be on the hot seat on Sunday, and I'll have to root for Bonds to hit a homer (shudder).

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